Global food prices climbed to their highest level in nearly four years in September, as disruptions to major trade routes and concerns over weather conditions pushed up prices of several key commodities.The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points last month, compared with a revised 134.0 points in August. It was the highest reading since November 2022.The rise was led by cereals, sugar and vegetable oils, with FAO benchmarks for all three commodities increasing during the month. Meat and dairy prices, on the other hand, declined, according to Reuters.Sugar prices were particularly affected by weather concerns, with fears of a severe El Nino pattern pushing international prices to an 18-month high. Wheat markets also came under pressure after a war-related collapse in Black Sea trade drove wheat futures to a three-year peak early last month.The pressure on food commodities has also been linked to wider disruptions affecting transport and logistics.“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad-based build up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities,” FAO chief economist Maximo Torero told Reuters.“If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food and energy import-dependent countries,” he said in a statement.
August also saw sharp rise
The September increase extends a rise seen in the previous month. In August, the FAO Food Price Index had averaged 133.3 points, compared with a revised 130.8 points in July.That was also the highest level since November 2022, as extreme weather, geopolitical tensions and disruptions to trade routes raised concerns about supplies of key agricultural commodities.Despite the increase, the August index remained nearly 17% below its record level reached in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Cereal output remains high
The latest price data comes alongside the FAO’s outlook for global cereal production. The organisation left its 2026 production forecast almost unchanged at 2.979 billion metric tonnes.The forecast is 2.1% below the previous year’s record, but would still make 2026 the second-largest cereal harvest on record.The outlook for global cereal trade was lowered, however. FAO cut its forecast for world cereal trade in 2026/27 by 0.7% from September, citing lower expectations for wheat and maize exports.The revision was largely linked to constrained shipping routes in the Black Sea, adding to the pressure already being seen across international agricultural commodity markets.
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